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UFC Sweden
  DustySwedeDude, Jan 17 2015

Not going, not gonna figure out how to fix the logistics. However, gonna try to catch it on TV. Here's my early picks:

UFC Sweden picks

Gus vs Johnson

Gus wins easy if Johnson shows up anything less then 100%, if Johnson is in shape and mentally all there I think Gus still is the favorite, but not that big of one. Johnson looked scary against Nog but he has had a shit six months with legal trouble and looking overweight at various times. Johnson by early KO or Gus by finish. I think Gus win early if Johnson is out of shape and late if he is, I also feel that Johnson is drawing very slim if the fight goes past the half way mark.

Gun to my head I go by Gus by TKO.

Old man Hendo vs Mousasi

Mousasi should win. Will probably be a bit careful since he really can't lose this if he wants to still be in the top of the division. Probably more or less unbettable odds so if I were to bet I would probably just go for the over if there's any decent odds on that. Or Mousasi by sub, hit that against Munoz and Mousasis sub line seems to be farily decent in most fights.

Davis vs Bader

I'm with sherdog here, Bader seems like he's better standing and should be able to keep it on his feet. Davis tends to get wins he shouldn't really get though, I'd go with whoever is a decent sized dog. Slightly favor Bader I think.

Akira vs Sicilia

Akiras last fights:

Got KO'd by Holloway in a fight he looked better then expected in for 3 min before he got hit with a decent punch and just straight lost.

Got TKO'd by Poirier who's a fairly legit top fighter 42 seconds into the 2nd round. Looked as good as you can look while getting finished that fast.

Got a DQ win against Maximo “Brainfart” Blanco 25 seconds into the first round. I have not seen the fight, but it sure didn't take him long to get in a position to get stopped by an illegal knee.

Took a boring ass decision against Robbie Peralta, thereby losing me money and ~20 minutes of my life that I'm never getting back. Peralta looked like absolute horse shit even for a part time fighter and nothing close to his regular self.

Won a split decision against Andy Ogle who then went on to lose 3 out of his next 4 only winning against Josh “0-3 in his last fights leading up to the fight” Grispi in a fight I for one can't recollect. I think someone thought it was a robbery but I really can't recall it.

Before that he was doing decently fighting and less so as a TV personality on a season of TUF from which he'll be remembered as a poor man's Julian “Just let me bang” Lane talking about how he came from the streets of Gothenburg, a city most famous for it's horrible word jokes and the fact that most of the population (including girls) are named “Glenn”. Before the TUF stint he came straight from getting KO'd by Paul Reed, a journeyman with a 21-12 record who at the time came from a KO-loss against some Polish guy I've never heard of and went on to lose against Martin Svensson, probably the tallest fucking featherweight in the world who did not make it either on the TUF trial (mostly because no one thought he'd be able to cut the weight) or the Swedish Masterchef.
Now, you might think that I do not rate Akira very highly and that might even be true, but on the other hand he's a though SOB and I think most of his KO's comes from his nose being bust. At least it looks that way. He also has some nice footwork and hits harder then his record of just one KO suggests. As long as he's up against people who let's him bang he makes it a fight until he breaks the nose and he's fairly decent at getting decisions due to good output.

Sam Sicilia is a decent fighter who tends to lose against real good fighters (Rony Jason) and win against lower level guys. Most of his wins comes by KO.

I'd go with Sicilia by KO if he happens to connect or Akira by dec if he can keep from getting hit in the face too much. As far as I can tell they have a combined one decision loss so even though I have a sneaky feeling that Akira might squeeze past him my brain really feels like Sicilia will win by KO.

Musoke vs Tumenov

My pick for fight of the night. Tumenov is real good standing and Musoke is fairly good with a hell of a chin and good pace. Not sure about the outcome or what the odds might be but I'd probably lean Musoke if he still was with Allstars but as it stands I wouldn't bet on this unless either fighter is a fairly decent dog.

Robertson vs Aliev

No idea

Ogle vs Amirkhani

No idea, no idea why Ogle is still in the promotion for that matter. Seems like a nice guy but is more or less a poor man's Akira

Taisumov vs Christodoulou

No idea, go with the Russian I guess?

Pesta vs Erokhin

Pesta might be a killer in some time, he looks real good, but Erokhin is a bad MF and I think it's too early. Erokin wins.

Bektic vs Omer

Bektic is a good prospect, unsure about Omer.

Seery vs Beal

Really impressed by Seery as a part time fighter. Beal not so much, although he seems more gifted as an athlete.

Poker

Everything went well until today, which was a utter shit session. Gonna see if I can 4tbl 1/2 zoom for a while and actually pay attention. Annoyed in general I guess, poker doesn't seem like it's in the mood to give me a break. It's probably just that I suck though, so it's fine. Gonna get better.



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I'm (kinda) back!
  DustySwedeDude, Jan 05 2015

So last year was horrid from a poker point of view. Did not play or study enough and as a result I suck and play lower now. Fairly sure I actually lost money overall last year.

Gonna relearn this damn game so that I can make enough money to try out a few new things. Trying to write a book or two, and some other things.

Anyway, gonna watch a ton of poker videos, play a decent bit and post hands. Will be back in a few days with my first batch of hands trying to figure them out again.

GL at the tables.



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First live straight flush
  DustySwedeDude, Mar 30 2014

So I was playing some 25/25SEK (so like 4/4USD) live PLO the other day. UTG+1, who's a reg and decent enough for a live player raises the straddle to 125, I 3bet 8s6d5d4d to 450 or whatever, I get a coldcall from some other guy and some guy who's been running the table over pots it to around 2k. Not sure the sizes but something like that. Oh, and I'm like 13k deep and the 4bettor covers. The other two has between 5 and 8k I think. The 4bettor has ranted about how stars regs can't fold AAxx on any board and how he's won 8k USD in those spots from retards etc all night.

UTG calls, I call and the guy behind call. 8k in the pot, and the flop comes 6s3d2d which gives me the straight and a flushdraw. Also one out for the straight flush. That's nice. 4bettor checks, UTG+1 checks and I bet 5k into 8k, one fold, 4bettor calls and UTG+1 tank/folds. Turn is a off suit 4, which I guess is a fine turn for me. A blank queen or something would've been better, but whatever, at least it's not like 7d or something that would be weird. 4bettor checks and I shove whatever I have left, I guess like 7k or something. He tank/calls. River falls Ad and I show my straight flush. Dude shows AA and muck the other two.

33k SEK pot, so around 4k USD or something. Not huge, but biggest or 2nd biggest I've played live. Kinda neat.



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